China’s Invasion Timeframe
TAIPEI (AFP) – China plans a “military showdown” with Taiwan in less than a decade, the island’s President Chen Shui-bian said.
Rejecting an opposition call to resume talks with Beijing based on earlier guidelines, Chen said it is not he but Chinese leaders who have tried to alter the status quo in the Strait by stockpiling weaponry targeting Taiwan.
“The number of ballistic missiles targeting Taiwan has topped 787 from 200 seen in the year 2000,” the independence-leaning president, who took office that year, told opposition leader Ma Ying-jeou during a nationally televised two-hour meeting.
The number is increasing by 100-120 per year, he said.
“Is this goodwill or part of its preparations for invading Taiwan? We must not turn a blind eye to this development,” Chen told Ma, who favours the resumption of talks with China.
“They have come up with a three-stage timeframe of using force against Taiwan,” Chen said in the meeting with Ma, head of the Kuomintang (KMT, or Nationalist) party.
“They plan to beef up their emergency warfare capabilities by 2007, and large-scale warfare capabilities against Taiwan by 2010 and capabilities to have a military showdown with Taiwan by 2015, according to the information we have collected.”
Therefore, while dealing with Beijing, the risk of hostilities must be taken into consideration, Chen said.
Ma is seen as the front-runner in the 2008 presidential polls while Chen cannot seek a third term.
Chen also rejected Ma’s recommendation that his government hold rapprochement talks with Beijing based on 1992 guidelines on the “one-China” principle.
“It would be problematic to regard this, which does not exist at all, as the basis of talks,” he said.
At a 1992 meeting in Hong Kong, China and Taiwan each agreed on their own interpretation of the “one-China principle” so talks could go ahead.
Chen suggested that former KMT chairman Lien Chan raise the so-called “1992 consensus” while meeting China’s President Hu Jintao later this month.
If Hu confirmed the consensus or allowed Taiwan to keep its interpretation of “one China,” Chen said he would also abide by the consensus and hold the peace talks as Ma proposed.
The two sides split in 1949 after a civil war but China regards Taiwan as part of its territory awaiting reunification, by force if necessary.
Ma had requested the meeting with Chen after returning from a high-profile trip to the United States last month. In an unusually warm reception he met US Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick, the highest level contact between Taiwan and the United States in years.
Washington was angered by Chen’s decision last month to disband a council dealing with the politically tricky question of uniting with China. It saw the move was an unnecessary provocation of the mainland.
The United States has also shown some frustration at Taiwan’s failure to conclude a huge US arms deal.
Chen’s government initially sought parliament’s approval for a 19-billion US dollar arms purchase over 15 years, but has since scaled back the amount under pressure from the KMT and other opposition parties.
The latest version calls for the purchase of eight conventional submarines, 12 P-3C submarine-hunting aircraft and six PAC-3 Patriot anti-missile systems at a cost of 10.6 billion dollars.
Some opposition lawmakers say Taiwan cannot afford the arms deal. Others say the equipment would be delivered too slowly to enable the island to keep pace with China’s military build-up. END






